When Is 25 Units Too Many?

“How many should I order?”

It’s the first question most people ask when they’re sourcing a product. And it’s the wrong one.

The right first question isn’t about quantity at all. It’s about whether you’ve earned the right to order anything yet.

In 2023, I ordered 25 illustrated calendars. Sold one — at half price. Twenty-five units sounds cautious. “Start small,” people say. But 25 units with zero pre-orders and 18 email subscribers isn’t starting small. It’s just gambling with less money.

The number was never the problem. The order of operations was.

I’m thinking about this right now because I’m in the middle of a school merchandise project — five product categories, real budget, real deadline. And the production decisions I’m making look completely different from the ones I made three years ago. Not because I know more about manufacturing. Because I’m asking the questions in the right order.

“Start small” is not a strategy

“Start small” gets framed as risk management. Order fewer units, lose less money if it flops.

But starting small without a demand signal isn’t risk management.

It’s just smaller-scale gambling.

You’re still guessing. You’re just guessing with less money.

For the school project, I’m not guessing. I already know who’s buying (parents at the school), roughly how many there are, and what price range works. The demand signal exists before a single unit gets ordered.

For my illustration business in 2023? I ordered 25 calendars because “25” sounded sensible.

The numbers I should have been looking at were 18 and 0. Email subscribers and pre-orders.

Different starting points. Completely different decisions.

The production economics most people never see

This is where it gets interesting — and where I think most small product businesses lose money without realising it.

Let me use real numbers from my tea towel production.

At 25 units: £7.20 per unit. Retail at £16. Margin: £8.80 (55%).

At 50 units: £5.80 per unit. Retail at £16. Margin: £10.20 (64%).

At 100 units: £4.50 per unit. Retail at £16. Margin: £11.50 (72%).

The instinct is obvious: order more, pay less per unit, make more margin.

But here’s what that instinct misses:

At 25 units, your total risk is £180. If they don’t sell, you’re out £180 and you’ve got a shelf of stock.

At 100 units, your total risk is £450. Better margin per unit — but you need to shift 100 items to see it. And if you’re selling to an audience of 18, those extra 75 units aren’t margin. They’re dead stock.

The unit cost conversation is tempting because it feels like you're making smart decisions. And you are — but you're making them in the wrong order. None of those margin numbers matter if you can't sell the first 25.

The right questions in the right order

Here's the framework I use now — and the one I'm applying to the school project. The first three questions decide whether you should order at all. The last four decide how much.

Before you talk to a supplier:

1. What signal do I have that people want this?

Not vibes. Not “my friend said it’s a great idea.” Actual indicators.

For the school project: confirmed interest from the parent community, a captive audience, and a clear use case. That’s a signal.

Soft signals that don’t count as validation: Instagram comments saying “this is lovely,” friends saying “I’d totally buy that,” your family’s enthusiasm, other people succeeding in the same category, your gut feeling.

What does count: pre-orders with money attached, a waitlist people willingly join, strangers asking repeatedly where they can buy, or, like the school project, a defined group with a confirmed need.

2. Can I reach enough buyers through channels I already have?

If you need 50 sales and you have access to 200 potential buyers, the maths can work. If you need 50 sales and your audience is 18 people, no amount of production optimisation fixes that.

3. Is the price validated — not assumed?

“I think £16 is reasonable” is an assumption. “I listed it at £16 and 12 strangers bought it” is validation.

Once demand is proven:

4. What’s the MOQ and how does unit cost change at different volumes?

This is where supplier conversations start. Not before.

5. What’s my margin requirement at each volume?

Factor in everything: unit cost, packaging, shipping to you, platform fees if selling online, shipping to customer. The headline margin and the real margin are rarely the same number.

6. What’s my cashflow reality?

Can I actually afford to sit on £450 of stock for 3 months while it sells through? Or do I need the faster turnover of a smaller order even if the margin is thinner?

7. What’s the shelf life of this product?

Calendars are dead stock by January. Seasonal items have a sell-by window. Evergreen products give you longer, but storage costs add up.

My calendars cost me twice — once in production, and again in the January markdown nobody wanted.

The numbers here are small. The framework isn't. Whether you're ordering 25 units or 25,000, the sequence is the same — validate demand before you commit production budget.

What this looks like in practice: the school project

For the school merchandise, the signal check was straightforward — the school confirmed interest, parents are the buyers, the products serve a clear purpose. Distribution is built in. Price testing is in progress, benchmarking against what parents typically spend and what comparable schools charge. Supplier evaluation is underway — comparing MOQs, unit costs at different volumes, lead times, quality samples.

The quantity decision comes last. Once I know the likely demand, the price point, and the supplier economics — then I’ll recommend quantities.

That’s the order. Signal → Distribution → Price → Supplier → Quantity.

Not the other way round.

The question that actually matters

Stop asking: “How many should I order?”

Ask instead: “Have I earned the right to order any yet?”

If your evidence is “some nice comments and supportive friends” — that’s not a quantity decision waiting to happen.

That’s a validation gap.

Fix that first. Then the production maths becomes useful instead of theoretical.

Because the problem is never the number.

The problem is ordering anything before you’ve proven someone wants it.

The production economics cheat sheet

For anyone sourcing physical products right now, here’s how I think about the quantity decision once validation is done:

Calculate your break-even point. Total production cost ÷ margin per unit = units you must sell before you make £1. If your break-even is higher than your realistic sales estimate, the order is too big.

Compare cost-per-unit at MOQ vs 2x MOQ vs 3x MOQ. Sometimes the jump from 25 to 50 units saves you 20% per unit. Sometimes it saves you 3%. The savings have to justify the additional risk.

Factor in the “dead stock fee.” Every unsold unit cost you money twice: once to produce and once to store. If you’re working from a spare bedroom, that’s space. If you’re paying for storage, that’s rent. Either way, it’s a cost.

Set a sell-through target before you order. Not “I hope to sell them all.” A specific number: “I need to sell 70% within 8 weeks to justify reordering.” If you can’t hit that target, the order was too large for your current distribution.

The quantity question is never really about quantity. It’s about how much risk you can justify with the evidence you actually have.